St. Mary's

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	29.0
Current RPI:	29
Expected SOS:	96
Current SOS:	96
Current Record:	26-6
Expected Record:	26-6
Current Conf Record:	15-3
Expected Conf Record:	15-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	4-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	11-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-0
Current OOC Record:	11-3
Expected OOC Record:	11-3
Expected OOC RPI:	44
Expected OOC SOS:	112

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
26-6	29.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-15	Utah St. (108.0)	WAC	A	58-67	W	100%
11-18	Eastern Washington (321.0)	BSky	H	85-66	W	100%
11-22	Drexel (206.0)	CAA	N	76-64	W	100%
11-23	Pacific (97.0)	BW	N	66-76	L	0%
11-25	Georgia Tech (149.0)	ACC	N	65-56	L	0%
12-1	Cal Poly (164.0)	BW	H	86-68	W	100%
12-5	Drake (143.0)	MVC	A	73-88	W	100%
12-11	Jackson St. (309.0)	SWAC	H	120-67	W	100%
12-19	Pacific (97.0)	BW	H	74-46	W	100%
12-23	Northern Iowa (83.0)	MVC	A	82-75	L	0%
12-27	Rhode Island (201.0)	A10	H	82-59	W	100%
12-30	Yale (198.0)	Ivy	H	78-62	W	100%
12-31	Harvard (93.0)	Ivy	H	70-69	W	100%
1-5	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	H	74-61	W	100%
1-10	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	A	83-78	L	0%
1-12	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	H	78-72	W	100%
1-16	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	A	69-70	W	100%
1-19	Portland (231.0)	WCC	A	38-60	W	100%
1-24	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	H	81-48	W	100%
1-26	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	H	84-72	W	100%
1-30	San Francisco (167.0)	WCC	A	63-67	W	100%
2-2	Portland (231.0)	WCC	H	77-42	W	100%
2-7	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	A	63-84	W	100%
2-9	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	A	64-74	W	100%
2-14	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	H	60-77	L	0%
2-16	Loyola Marymount (211.0)	WCC	A	50-61	W	100%
2-21	Brigham Young (69.0)	WCC	H	64-57	W	100%
2-23	Creighton (25.0)	MVC	H	74-66	W	100%
2-27	Pepperdine (212.0)	WCC	A	48-87	W	100%
3-2	Santa Clara (101.0)	WCC	H	80-67	W	100%
3-9	San Diego (165.0)	WCC	N	69-66	W	100%
3-11	Gonzaga (6.0)	WCC	N	65-51	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Mary's	WCC	26.47	26.47	80.82	80.82	16.32	16.32
San Diego	WCC	5.56	5.56	48.28	48.28	-0.19	-0.19
Gonzaga	WCC	5.55	5.55	93.10	93.10	4.79	4.79
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.20	4.20	33.33	33.33	-1.40	-1.40
Santa Clara	WCC	4.11	4.11	67.86	67.86	1.47	1.47
Brigham Young	WCC	4.04	4.04	68.97	68.97	1.53	1.53
San Francisco	WCC	4.03	4.03	48.15	48.15	-0.15	-0.15
Pepperdine	WCC	4.01	4.01	40.74	40.74	-0.74	-0.74
Portland	WCC	3.98	3.98	32.14	32.14	-1.42	-1.42
Pacific	BW	3.39	3.39	63.33	63.33	0.90	0.90
Cal Poly	BW	1.81	1.81	57.14	57.14	0.26	0.26
Creighton	MVC	1.69	1.69	81.82	81.82	1.07	1.07
Drake	MVC	1.68	1.68	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Utah St.	WAC	1.66	1.66	68.97	68.97	0.63	0.63
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.66	1.66	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Yale	Ivy	1.62	1.62	42.86	42.86	-0.23	-0.23
Harvard	Ivy	1.62	1.62	69.23	69.23	0.62	0.62
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.61	1.61	33.33	33.33	-0.54	-0.54
Drexel	CAA	1.56	1.56	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Georgia Tech	ACC	1.56	1.56	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	1.56	1.56	39.29	39.29	-0.33	-0.33
Rhode Island	A10	1.56	1.56	28.57	28.57	-0.67	-0.67
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.35	0.35	41.38	41.38	-0.06	-0.06
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.33	0.33	31.03	31.03	-0.12	-0.12
UC Irvine	BW	0.25	0.25	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.23	0.23	40.62	40.62	-0.04	-0.04
UC Davis	BW	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.23	0.23	79.31	79.31	0.13	0.13
Bradley	MVC	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.21	0.21	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.21	0.21	14.29	14.29	-0.15	-0.15
California	P12	0.21	0.21	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.20	0.20	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Long Beach St.	BW	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.20	0.20	31.03	31.03	-0.07	-0.07
Nevada	MWC	0.18	0.18	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Wichita St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	76.47	76.47	0.09	0.09
Columbia	Ivy	0.17	0.17	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Utah Valley	GWC	0.16	0.16	35.71	35.71	-0.04	-0.04
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	39.29	39.29	-0.03	-0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.15	0.15	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	23.08	23.08	-0.08	-0.08
Baylor	B12	0.15	0.15	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	34.38	34.38	-0.05	-0.05
Missouri St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.14	0.14	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Princeton	Ivy	0.14	0.14	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
St. Louis	A10	0.13	0.13	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
George Mason	CAA	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Georgia St.	CAA	0.13	0.13	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Kentucky	ASun	0.13	0.13	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Xavier	A10	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.12	0.12	58.82	58.82	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	CUSA	0.12	0.12	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.11	0.11	29.63	29.63	-0.05	-0.05
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	28.12	28.12	-0.05	-0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	13.79	13.79	-0.08	-0.08
Seattle	WAC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
San Jose St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	76.47	76.47	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Texas San Antonio	WAC	0.10	0.10	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Texas St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	A10	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Davidson	SC	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	63.64	63.64	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Vermont	AE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Fordham	A10	0.08	0.08	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Denver	WAC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
Idaho	WAC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.07	0.07	85.19	85.19	0.05	0.05
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	CUSA	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling	SWAC	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	WAC	0.05	0.05	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	85.29	85.29	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	81.82	81.82	0.03	0.03
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	BE	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CAA	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	SB	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	AE	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	BE	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	28.12	28.12	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	A10	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Louisville	BE	0.03	0.03	85.29	85.29	0.02	0.02
Maryland	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	67.86	67.86	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	21.43	21.43	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.02	0.02	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	19.35	19.35	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01